Opening day is one week away and it seems there are just as many questions as there was when Spring Training started a month and a half ago. The fifth starter and left field are by far the biggest questions as to who will be in those positions, but there are other burning questions regarding performance. Will Aaron Harang return to form this year? Can Jay Bruce live up to his huge offensive potential? Can Arthur Rhodes keep his 1.00 ERA while pitching from a wheel chair? All questions that will do more in determining whether the Reds make the playoffs than who the fifth starter is.
Quick note on Harang before looking at the 5th starter though. Noone should really put too much faith in Spring Training numbers; it's usually a time for veteran pitchers to work on certain pitches and not really care that much about the results. At least that's how it should be for a player named Opening Day Starter for the 5th straight year. However, a quote after his horrible outing March 25th (7 runs, 9 hits in 2 2/3rds innings) vs the Rockies has me a bit worried. Harang said, "You've got to get the (bad) games out down here. That's one of those games you chalk up as tough luck. When you don't have your good stuff, it's hard to get through it without giving up anything. They're bound to catch up with you, and they did." It worries me because he should be saying, "I was working on locating my fastball and putting a little extra movement on my slider," instead of saying "it was bad luck I pitched like that." It does not give me high confidence for his impact this year.
OK, so heading into spring training there were plenty of names tossed out for the 5th starter spot. Mike Lincoln (I always laughed at that one), Micah Owings, Matt Maloney, Justin Lehr, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake to name a few. Now that we are a week away from Cincinnati Day 2010, it's down to an unlikely trio of youngters: Mike Leake (Reds 1st round pick from 2009), Travis Wood (Reds 2nd round pick from 2005, and 22 year old Cuban defector Aroldis "anyone seen previews for that dragon movie coming out? yea that's my left arm" Chapman.
Like I said, when you'
re an established pitcher, you spend Spring Training getting back into it and perfecting pitches. When you're a youngster fighting for a roster spot, you give it everything you've got and hold back nothing. So while a pitcher's ERA might be a lot better than during the regular season, spring does allow for a comparative basis between pitchers. Lets take a look:Mike Leake: 2.81 ERA (5 ER's in 16 innings).
Travis Wood: 2.40 ERA (4 ER's in 15 innings).
Aroldis Chapman: 1.04 ERA (1 ER in 8.2 innings).
OK so they are all stellar. Especially for youngsters. Hell start them all. I get giddy typing that talking about the Reds.
Chapman threw on Sunday for the first time since tweaking his back in a game and all reports are that he will be fine. This might just be the thing that Dusty has been needing to send him to the minors though. My guess is Chapman would spend at least a month in the minors. Then depending on how the rotation is doing, think about bringing him up. So that leaves Leake and Wood. Recent comments from Dusty point to Wood being the front runner. Baker said, "The only thing is Leake hasn’t gone in a five-man rotation yet, he’s just pitched Friday night (in college). We don’t know how he’ll respond there. Wood is five years in pro ball. He’s more experienced. We don’t know quite enough about Chapman to make a true determination."
Both Leake and Wood will get some final action this week, although with their numbers being so close I don't think this week is going to determine who makes the team and who doesn't. It's all in Dusty's court right now and only God knows what that man is thinking sometimes.
Final Notes:
-Harang gets a final "tuneup" when he pitches Tuesday at 4:05 against el Padres
-I couldn't be more ready to sit in the ballpark, have an $8 beer and eat some penisuts.
Greg "12 years and counting"
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